Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production Set for 1.9 Million Tonne High in 2025, Says IATA

GENEVA, El Sky News – Global production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is projected to experience a significant surge, potentially hitting 1.9 million tonnes (approximately 630 million gallons) in 2025. However, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has indicated a weaker outlook for the fuel’s output in the immediate year ahead.

According to recent analysis from IATA, the total SAF production for 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below 1 million tonnes. While this represents a marked increase from previous years, the association suggests that 2025 will be the year the industry truly sees an uplift, with the potential to nearly double current output. This ambitious projection is heavily dependent on several new production facilities becoming operational, signaling a crucial step in aviation’s path toward decarbonization.

SAF, which can be made from various feedstocks like used cooking oil, agricultural waste, and even certain synthetic processes, is considered the most critical tool for reducing aviation’s carbon footprint. The fuel allows airlines to dramatically cut life-cycle $\text{CO}_2$ emissions, offering a credible pathway to meeting industry climate targets.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, acknowledged the positive momentum but tempered expectations for the short term. “The commitment to SAF is evident through increasing off-take agreements and policy support,” Walsh stated. “But realistically, the actual volume increase expected in the next year (2024) is modest. The major leap is expected in 2025 as large-scale projects, currently under construction or commissioning, finally come online.”

IATA estimates that to date, over 140 agreements have been signed by various airlines to purchase future SAF volumes. Furthermore, approximately 140 renewable fuel projects with the capability to produce SAF are in various stages of planning and construction worldwide.

The main hurdle remains the slow pace of scaling up production to meet the industry’s massive long-term demand. The aviation sector has set a target for SAF to account for 5% of its total fuel consumption by 2030, which requires an estimated annual production of 17.5 million tonnes.

• 2024 Outlook: Production is expected to marginally increase to just under 1 million tonnes.
• 2025 Projection: A sharp rise to 1.9 million tonnes is feasible, driven by new facility completion.
• 2030 Target: The required volume is 17.5 million tonnes to meet the 5% usage target.

IATA emphasized the necessity of strong policy frameworks and financial incentives to accelerate investment in new refineries. The association stressed that without government support for the transition from fossil fuels to sustainable sources, the industry’s net-zero 2050 ambition will be significantly more challenging to achieve. The focus remains on diversifying feedstock sources and ensuring efficient certification and deployment of the high-potential fuel.