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KUALA LUMPUR, JULY 2026 – The ringgit is expected to move within the range of RM4.07 to RM4.10 against the US dollar over the next six months, supported by Malaysia’s strong domestic economic performance despite continued high global demand for the greenback.
Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Muamalat, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Prof. Datuk Dr. Mustafa Mohd Hanefah, said the strength of the US dollar is still being driven by steady demand for the currency, as well as the resilience of the US economy.
He said this factor has allowed the US dollar to continue dominating global currency markets, even as several other major currencies show improved performance.
However, Mustafa said the ringgit continues to be supported by Malaysia’s encouraging economic performance, particularly second-quarter growth, along with the rise in global crude oil and crude palm oil prices.
According to him, higher prices for these two key commodities are positive for Malaysia’s export income and help strengthen sentiment toward the ringgit.
Still, he noted that Malaysia’s economy is no longer fully dependent on oil and commodities as it was in the past. The country’s economic structure has become more diversified, with the electrical and electronics sector now playing a major role in supporting exports.
Mustafa said strong global demand for high-technology products has helped keep Malaysia’s E&E sector resilient. This, in turn, shows that the country now has a more balanced and durable economic foundation in facing global uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Prof. Dr. Mohd Rizal Palil, said the current weakness of the ringgit against the US dollar should be seen as temporary.
He said the local currency is expected to strengthen again if Malaysia’s economic growth continues to improve and the Overnight Policy Rate remains stable.
Although the ringgit remains weaker against the US dollar, Mohd Rizal said its performance is still better than many other major currencies, supported by Malaysia’s increasingly stable economic position compared with several ASEAN economies.
He explained that a more stable domestic economy remains one of the main factors supporting the ringgit’s value at the regional level.
However, the continued strength of the US dollar remains a major pressure point for the ringgit. This is because the dollar is widely used in international trade, investment and central bank reserves, making it difficult for other currencies to outperform it during periods of global uncertainty.
Mohd Rizal said global risk-off sentiment also benefits the US dollar, as investors often choose it as a safe-haven asset when financial markets become uncertain.
He added that although crude oil prices have increased, the impact on the ringgit is limited because Malaysia’s oil exports are still traded in US dollars. As a result, higher oil prices do not automatically create stronger demand for the ringgit.
A weaker ringgit may also raise import costs, making imported goods more expensive for consumers and businesses. However, Mohd Rizal said this situation could encourage consumers to shift toward local products, benefiting domestic producers.
On the global oil outlook, Mustafa said crude oil prices rising above US$100 per barrel, equivalent to about RM409.45, could place significant pressure on the global economy, including the United States.
He said high oil prices can increase energy costs and potentially revive inflationary pressure. Energy is a key cost component across production, transportation and global supply chains, meaning price increases can affect almost every sector of the economy.
According to Mustafa, higher inflation caused by rising oil prices could reduce consumer purchasing power and place pressure on global economic growth, including the US economy, which continues to face challenges in maintaining price stability.
He added that when oil prices rise too sharply, the impact is not limited to oil-importing countries. Large economies such as the United States may also face pressure as company operating costs and consumer spending rise.
Developments in US politics are also expected to remain closely watched, especially ahead of the presidential election in November, as political direction may influence market sentiment and economic policy expectations.
