BN-PN Alliance Could Win 122 Seats in GE16, Analysis Shows Shift in Malaysia’s Political Landscape

KUALA LUMPUR, AUGUST 2026 — A potential electoral partnership between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) could significantly reshape Malaysia’s political landscape at the 16th General Election, with one analysis projecting that the two coalitions may be able to win as many as 122 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

The projection is based on combining BN and PN votes from GE15 and assumes both sides avoid multi-cornered contests that could split their voter base. If replicated nationally, the figure would place the alliance 10 seats above the 112-seat simple majority required to form the federal government.

The strategy gained attention after recent state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, where coordinated voting patterns between BN and PN appeared to produce stronger results. In Negeri Sembilan, the two blocs divided the 36 state seats and together secured 25, including six previously held by Pakatan Harapan (PH).

Under the projected GE16 scenario, PN could win 66 seats while BN takes 56 in Peninsular Malaysia. PAS would potentially remain one of the largest individual parties, while Umno could strengthen its position depending on seat negotiations and its performance in Sabah.

The analysis assumes parties would first defend constituencies they won in GE15 before negotiating over seats currently held by rivals or by Bersatu. PAS would begin with its existing 43 seats, while BN would defend 23 seats won by Umno, MCA and MIC.

A major issue would be the future of Bersatu’s 28 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia. Some are held by lawmakers aligned with Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, now leader of Parti Wawasan Negara, creating a potentially difficult negotiation between Umno, PAS and Wawasan over candidate allocation.

The same projection suggests Pakatan Harapan could face significant losses, potentially falling from 71 parliamentary seats in the peninsula at GE15 to around 43. PKR could be reduced to as few as 11 seats, while DAP may retain about 30 and Amanah two.

However, political analyst Bridget Welsh cautioned that the numbers remain theoretical and must be supported by constituency-level data. She noted that future seat negotiations, voter sentiment and upcoming elections, including Melaka, could alter the political equation considerably.

A BN-PN partnership would also face internal challenges, particularly over seat distribution and leadership. PAS currently holds more parliamentary seats than Umno, raising questions over which party would have the stronger claim to lead the government and nominate a prime minister if the alliance succeeds.

While the electoral mathematics suggest a potentially powerful combination, Malaysia’s political landscape remains fluid. Past cooperation between Umno and PAS under Muafakat Nasional ultimately collapsed, highlighting that successful vote-sharing does not necessarily guarantee a lasting political partnership.